Note that the 's are independent and identically distributed and have an expected value of 0 ... ma part */ + ma(q) * zlag(q)( resid.y ); y = yhat + yarma; where ARi and MAj represent the ...

Through a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that although fertility is affected when the unemployment rate rises, a fall in the unemployment rate does not affect it. Thus, our ...